Wednesday, 14 December 2016

2016 most searched for trends

Search is a great way to look back on the year. It was a year for politics the US election and Brexit topped nightly TV news. Everyone probably needed a break from politics as surprisingly the most searched word on Google was Pokemon Go which peaked in July. Thankfully Australia seemed to have proper interests searching for the US election instead. The most searched for item in the US was the powerball lottery which had a record breaking $1.6 billion pool that was split three ways. China had their own interests including the usual house price concerns and the news that couples could have two kids.

                        Google  (Global)      Google (Australia)    Baidu (China)


https://www.google.com.au/trends/yis/2016/GLOBAL
https://www.chinainternetwatch.com/19352/baidu-keywords-2016/?awt_l=GkCVg&awt_m=3hJlxhZJo2RcP7G


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 4 December 2016

The selfie trend

Macro investing is hard not many investors were well positioned for Brexit or for Trump. A more consistent method is investing in trends. One of the more unusual trends I follow is the selfie trend.

We have all witnessed this effect. Everyone is a paparazzi carrying a phone with a camera in their pocket. Millennials expect their photo to be taken everyday. The rise of the selfie has led to growth in fast fashion like Zara, heaven forbid you are seen in the same dress in a week. Deloitte Global predicts that in 2016 2.5 trillion photos will be shared online a 15% increase on last year.

Beauty stores like Sephora are benefiting from this trend unfortunately we can't invest directly as its a division of LVMH. But another make up/beauty retailer Ulta Salon (ULTA) has been one of the strongest share performers year to date. It has 21.7 million members in its loyalty program. You can't get your hair cut or colored on Amazon.




The craziest trend has been Botox. 6% of their customers are aged between 20-30 up significantly see above. The pressure is greatest in Silicon Valley where the bias towards young people and startups is extreme. Older engineers are pressured to look younger its illegal but most Silicon Valley engineers presume that older workers are outdated in their skillset. Thankfully finance is the opposite. Experience and grey hair is looked at as a good thing.

The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 27 November 2016

Startcon 2016

We attended the Startcon tech conference this weekend in Sydney. It had a global presence with presenters such as Uber, Zillow, Bloomberg and Twilio.

The bad news is that we are in a startup bubble on average Venture capitalists paid 46x revenue for their investments a record high which has since come off. The good news is that startups are tackling bigger problems than ever. Interestingly each region in Asia has a different set of problems to solve.

Japan
Has one of the highest rates of suicide in the world. Its a major issue so a lot of start ups are working on mental wellness apps able to pre-empt and sense your emotions.

Australia
Australia as you might have guessed is focused on fin tech. The dominance of the big 4 banks and their profitability is attracting many startups. Apparently banks make $1,000 per person in Australia the second is Belgium at $400. We are also early adopters of technology with the 2nd highest iPhones per capita after Singapore. Given we are such early adopters there is no reason why fintech shouldn't be more successful in Australia.

Indonesia
Traffic in Indonesia is bad so start ups are focused on on-demand services.



There was also great advice on pitching creating your Wow moment. The inside joke on elevator pitches is that there are no elevators in Silicon Valley!


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Wednesday, 16 November 2016

Trumptastic returns

Trump isn't the only surprise winner. The best performing stock since he was elected president is not a financial or healthcare stock but a commodity shipper.  Dryships (operates drybulk carriers iron ore, coal) is up over 16 times increasing from $4.56 to $73 in less than a week. Its an extraordinary return given concerns over Trump's trade policies. Though Dryships is still way down from its peak in 2007 of $171,000.


The chart above is measured over 4 days note there are only 1.1 million shares outstanding over 10 million shares traded the last two nights. Who would have thought Trump would be good for shipping then again it's been a crazy week.


Decisive has no position in Dryships. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 6 November 2016

Disruption in two charts

Traditional industries are being disrupted faster than ever. Google disrupted newspaper ads now Facebook is adding to their pain. Valuations of newspapers are cheap for a reason at the time of IPO both Google and Facebook looked expensive but valuations aren't as important when there is a paradigm shift of a better mouse trap.


Not only have Google and Facebook disrupted hundreds of newspapers they have also taken all the growth leaving advertisers with little digital choice. Digital Content Next have calculated that the two companies accounted for all the growth in US digital advertising in the first half of this year. The rest including Yahoo are shrinking. If you're worried about their dominance it might be an idea to go long their shares.


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Decisive has a long position in Facebook and Google. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 30 October 2016

Computer gaming a legitimate career?

Millennials follow computer games and their teams just as passionately as sports. Even Australian banks are getting on board with news that St George is sponsoring a local gaming league. The biggest event the League of Legends world championship was held this weekend at the Staples Arena Los Angeles. Esports as they are known is massive in Korea and it's reflected in their sponsorship the top team SK Telecom T1 defeated Samsung Galaxy for the championship. The debate about whether gaming is a sport can be settled they earn just as much. The wining team took home $2m. Interestingly over 50% of the $5million pool was contributed by fans the final number will continue to increase as fans can contribute till November 6th.


 Viewership is already ahead of hockey and is on track to overtake every American sport except NFL by 2020. It was the first worlds final to go to five games but for the rest of us it's hard to follow. The commentary is interesting with each gamer having their own call signs such as Blank and Wolf. Most millennials relate more to these gamers than to professional sports stars. 


It's a great business model change for gaming companies. Gaming in general is predicted to increase significantly (see chart below) so far they earn money from games but if you begin to add in ticket sales, sponsorships and licensing revenue its financially looking much more attractive than the traditional sports model.


These slides were sourced from http://www.wsj.com/articles/activates-michael-wolf-predicts-whats-next-for-tech-and-media-in-2017-1477436031?tesla=y


The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.

Sunday, 23 October 2016

Australian phone use is one of the lowest globally.

Charging your phone is a daily habit for all of us you have to do it everyday. In Australia we all seem obsessed with our phones but globally we are one of the most power efficient with 26.7 hours of phone power compared to the global average of 21.7 hours. Apps are the biggest drain on our phones. The biggest power hogs are games the least are messaging apps suggesting we are big on messaging, all fun but no games.



Baidu in conjunction with DU Global Battery Lab have ranked apps according to the drain on your battery life. The worst battery offenders tend to be games.


The best energy wise are 


You can find the entire report here 

Decisive has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The material in this article is for informational purposes only and in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. The material has been prepared without regard to any client's or other person's investment objectives. Before making an investment decision you should consider the assistance of a financial adviser and whether any investment or service is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs.